Over the course of my military career, I learned early on that uncertainty was part of the fundamentals of strategic planning. The prominent military theorist Carl von Clausewitz described it this way:
“No campaign plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
Conditions shifted. Sometimes the ground literally shook beneath our feet. But what stands out to me now is how closely today’s business environment resembles those volatile moments—only this time, the uncertainty is global, persistent, and woven into nearly every industry.
And unlike a military formation, most corporate teams aren’t trained for this kind of operating environment.
Think about the current conditions: War in Europe. Rising tension in the Pacific. Domestic unrest. Supply chains stretched so thin that a single disruption sends shockwaves across entire sectors. Economic ripples that begin thousands of miles away land hard on local companies and teams. Some leaders keep waiting for things to “settle,” but global unrest isn’t a passing event. It has become the backdrop of our working lives.
The question isn’t how we avoid uncertainty. The question is how we lead through it—steadily, clearly, and with enough humility to acknowledge that none of us has all the answers.
The Leader’s Role in a Disordered World
If you strip away the headlines, the pundits, and the endless commentary, a central truth emerges: unrest erodes clarity.
And adaptive leaders must restore it.
That’s why our first instinct in times like these must be to re-center the team—because when the world outside becomes noisy, your people need something steady to hold onto. In The Power of Being All In, I wrote that leaders can’t walk into turbulence without a compass. That compass is our Azimuth, and during global instability, it becomes more than a planning tool. It becomes our touchstone.
The four components of the Azimuth: Mission, Intent, Values, and Cultural Behaviors define who we are, what matters most, and what success looks like, even when the environment shifts. You can’t control political events or geopolitical risk, but you can clarify the path forward. In uncertain terrain, a shared Azimuth gives teams confidence. Without it, they drift.
Becoming a Sense Maker
When I interviewed General Martin Dempsey, the 18th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for The Power of Being All In, he made an observation that has stayed with me: Adaptive leaders today must be sense makers. Not critics. Not commentators. Sense makers.
People look to leaders not for predictions but for meaning—someone who can interpret complexity without dramatizing it, explain what’s relevant and what isn’t, and see through the psychological fog uncertainty creates. When leaders go silent, fear grows. When leaders give context, fear recedes.
During high-stress operations in the Army, silence from leadership was rare—and dangerous. Soldiers needed to know what mattered now, what might matter next, and what didn’t matter at all. In organizations today, the same principle applies: clarity is a gift. Context is a stabilizer. And teams rely on both to stay focused amid external turbulence.
Leading with Tactical Patience
One of the most counterintuitive lessons I learned in uniform—and one I continue to teach leaders today—is the discipline of tactical patience. High stakes tempt us to speed up, but rushed decisions in volatile conditions often produce more volatility.
Tactical patience isn’t hesitation. It’s the two-second pause that invites reflection. It’s the willingness to ask one more question before issuing direction. It’s the discipline to gather perspective before reacting. In the Army, tactical patience saves lives. In business, it prevents overcorrection and protects your organization’s ability to adapt without panic.
Leaders who practice tactical patience demonstrate steadiness. And in uncertain times, steady leadership becomes a source of psychological safety no process or policy can replicate.
Why Culture Matters Even More Now
Global unrest exposes the cracks in weak cultures. In The Power of Being All In, I described the difference between a Culture of Compliance and a Culture of Commitment. Compliance works only when conditions are stable. The moment volatility hits, compliance collapses—people retreat, communication tightens, and initiative disappears.
Commitment cultures do the opposite. They create stability by building trust, ownership, and unity long before uncertainty arrives. When teams operate from a shared Azimuth, they collaborate rather than compete, adapt early rather than react late, and take action because they understand the leader’s intent—not because someone is watching over them.
In uncertain times, the organizations that thrive aren’t the ones with the most rules. They’re the ones where people say, “We’re all in. Whatever comes next, we face it together.”
The Way Forward
Global unrest isn’t a temporary storm we wait out. It’s the environment we’re now called to lead in. Fortunately, success in uncertainty doesn’t require perfect foresight—only disciplined habits practiced consistently.
Start now by conducting an “Azimuth Reset” with your team. Revisit Mission, Intent, Values, and Culture and ask, “What has changed outside—and what hasn’t changed inside?”
Establish a rhythm of sense-making conversations, where the goal isn’t prediction but clarity.
And practice tactical patience—slow down just enough to make room for wisdom.
These aren’t complicated practices, but they are powerful. They build steadiness in the leader and confidence in the team. And confidence is the currency of adaptive leadership.
The question for this week is simple:
Where is global uncertainty weighing most heavily on your team—operations, mindset, or trust—and what one action will you take to restore clarity and context?
Enjoy the journey!
